 Secondary Mathematics II

Strand: STATISTICS - Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (S.CP)

Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data (Standards S.CP.1, 4�5). Use the rules of probability to compute probabilities of compound events in a uniform probability model (Standard S.CP.6).
• A Better Fire!!
A simulation of a forest fire and how it spreads helps students learn about probability in this lesson.
• Breakfast Before School
The purpose of this task is to assess a student's ability to explain the meaning of independence in a simple context.
• But mango is my favorite
This task can be used as an instructional task to develop students understanding of independence and students ability to calculate the probability of intersection events using the multiplication rule for independent events.
• Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events
This lesson plan is designed to help students understand and use the formula for probability of simultaneous independent events.
• Crazy Choices Game
Students will understand probability by playing various games of chance in this lesson's applet.
• Describing Events
The purpose of this task is to illustrate standard S.CP.1, which provides a review of the definitions of sample space and events. Students are asked to describe events both verbally and as subsets of a sample space.
• False Positive Test Results
This purpose of this task is to examine in a concrete situation a common statistical fallacy where two conditional probabilities are confused.
• How Do You Get to School?
This task is designed as an assessment item. It requires students to use information in a two-way table to calculate a probability and a conditional probability.
• Ideas that Lead to Probability
This lesson is designed so that students will understand the concept of probability by working with random number generators.
• Introduction to the Materials (Math 2)
Introduction to the Materials in the Mathematics Two of the The MVP classroom experience begins by confronting students with an engaging task and then invites them to grapple with solving it. As students ideas emerge, take form, and are shared, the teacher orchestrates the student discussions and explorations towards a focused mathematical goal. As conjectures are made and explored, they evolve into mathematical concepts that the community of learners begins to embrace as effective strategies for analyzing and solving problems.
• Marbles
This activity helps the student understand randomness and probability by pulling marbles out of a bag.
• Medical Testing
This lesson unit is intended to help educators assess how well students are able to make sense of a real life situation and decide what math to apply to the problem, understand and calculate the conditional probability of an event A, given an event B, and interpret the answer in terms of a model, and represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables, tree diagrams, and Venn diagrams.
• Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip
This lesson unit is intended to help educators assess how well students are able to understand conditional probability and represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams.
• Module 9: Probability - Student Edition (Math 2)
The Mathematics Vision Project, Secondary Math Two Module 9, Probability, extends students work in representing and analyzing data to understand concepts in probability. In the module, students use representations such as tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, and two-way frequency tables to draw conclusions about the likelihood of an event.
• Module 9: Probability - Teacher Edition (Math 2)
The Mathematics Vision Project, Secondary Math Two Module 9, Probability, extends students work in representing and analyzing data to understand concepts in probability. In the module, students use representations such as tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, and two-way frequency tables to draw conclusions about the likelihood of an event.
• Racing Game with Two Dice
By using the applet embedded in this lesson plan, students can simulate a race and learn about probability.
• Rain and Lightning
This task uses the same situation to explore different concepts of probability theory.
• Representing Conditional Probabilities 2
This lesson unit is intended to help educators assess how well students understand conditional probability.
The task is intended to address standards regarding sample space, independence, probability distributions and permutations/combinations.
• STATISTICS - Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (S.CP) - Sec Math II Core Guide
The Utah State Board of Education (USBE) and educators around the state of Utah developed these guides for the Secondary Mathematics II - Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (S.CP).
• The Titanic 1
This task guides students by asking the series of specific questions and lets them explore the concepts of probability as a fraction of outcomes, and using two-way tables of data.
• The Titanic 2
This task lets students explore the concepts of probability as a fraction of outcomes, and using two-way tables of data.
• The Titanic 3
This is the last task in the series of three, which ask related questions, but use different levels of scaffolding. This task uses a more detailed version of the data table. This is a very open ended task. It poses the question, but the students have to formulate a plan to answer it, and use the two-way table of data to find all the necessary probabilities.
• Two-Way Tables and Probability
The purpose of this task is to provide practice using data in a two-way table to calculate probabilities, including conditional probabilities. http://www.uen.org - in partnership with Utah State Board of Education (USBE) and Utah System of Higher Education (USHE).  Send questions or comments to USBE Specialist - Joleigh Honey and see the Mathematics - Secondary website. For general questions about Utah's Core Standards contact the Director - Jennifer Throndsen .

These materials have been produced by and for the teachers of the State of Utah. Copies of these materials may be freely reproduced for teacher and classroom use. When distributing these materials, credit should be given to Utah State Board of Education. These materials may not be published, in whole or part, or in any other format, without the written permission of the Utah State Board of Education, 250 East 500 South, PO Box 144200, Salt Lake City, Utah 84114-4200.